Live-Action Moana Targets $60M Opening After $4.5M Thursday Preview Start

Disney’s live-action adaptation of *Moana* opened with a $4.5 million haul from Thursday preview screenings, a figure that has sparked mixed reactions among industry analysts and fans. The film, starring Catherine Laga’aia as the titular wayfinder and Dwayne Johnson as demigod Maui, was initially projected to debut in the $60 million to $70 million range, but early estimates have since dropped to as low as $40 million. The discrepancy highlights the challenges of reviving a beloved animated franchise so soon after its sequel, *Moana 2*, grossed over $1 billion globally in 2024.

The $4.5 million Thursday preview total, spread across 3,900 North American screens, outperformed Disney’s 2023 live-action *The Little Mermaid* but fell short of the studio’s recent successes like *Beauty and the Beast* (2017) and *The Lion King* (2019). Critics have been divided, with the film holding a 36% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. While some praised its visual spectacle and cultural authenticity, others questioned the necessity of a live-action remake so soon after the original’s 2016 release and its animated sequel’s box office dominance. “This charming new iteration stands confidently on its own,” wrote *The Hollywood Reporter*’s David Rooney, though he acknowledged the film’s “unavoidable comparisons” to its animated predecessor.

Disney’s decision to greenlight the project came amid a broader trend of live-action remakes, which have yielded mixed results. The film’s $250 million production budget — plus an estimated $100 million to $150 million in global marketing — has raised concerns about its financial viability. Industry analysts note that the movie would need to gross around $625 million worldwide to break even, a target that seems increasingly distant given its soft start. “The preview number is a rounding error above *Snow White*’s $3.5 million,” wrote box office tracker Jatinder Singh, referencing Disney’s 2023 remake that opened to $42 million. “But the math doesn’t add up for a film with this price tag.”

Competition also looms large. *Moana* opened alongside *Toy Story 5*, which had already surpassed $800 million globally, and will face a direct clash with Christopher Nolan’s *The Odyssey* in just seven days. The film’s timing has exacerbated audience fatigue, particularly among families who may opt for established franchises over a remake of a story they already own on streaming. “The original *Moana* remains enormously popular, and the sequel’s success made the live-action version feel unnecessary,” said one industry observer. “Why pay to see the same story again when you can stream it at home?”

Despite the challenges, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. The film’s Thursday preview numbers, while modest, suggest a core audience of families and Polynesian culture enthusiasts. Catherine Laga’aia’s performance as Moana has drawn praise for its authenticity, with critics noting her ability to “bring a fresh confidence and warmth” to the role. Dwayne Johnson’s return as Maui, meanwhile, has been a consistent draw, with his charisma and humor cited as key strengths. “Fans already know what to expect from Maui,” wrote *HOLR Magazine*, “but seeing Johnson physically embody the character adds a layer of immersion that animation couldn’t match.”

The film’s success may hinge on word-of-mouth and repeat viewings, a common trajectory for family films. *Moana*’s original 2016 release earned $643 million worldwide, and its sequel’s $1 billion cume underscores the franchise’s enduring appeal. However, the live-action version’s reliance on nostalgia could backfire if audiences perceive it as a cash grab. “This isn’t a film that needs to be remade,” said one reviewer. “It’s a story that’s already perfect as is.”

As the opening weekend unfolds, the film’s final numbers will offer clarity on whether Disney’s gamble pays off. For now, *Moana*’s $4.5 million Thursday preview serves as both a cautionary tale and a test of the studio’s ability to balance franchise loyalty with creative reinvention. With its cultural significance, star power, and the enduring legacy of its animated roots, the film remains a pivotal moment in Disney’s live-action strategy, but its box office fate hangs in the balance.