Bev Craig expected to be named Mayor of Greater Manchester in by-election

Labour’s Bev Craig is poised to be declared the new Mayor of Greater Manchester following a historic by-election that saw a record-low turnout of 25.4%, according to preliminary figures released as counting concluded at the Co-Op Live Arena. The result marks a pivotal moment in the region’s political landscape, with Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council, emerging as the frontrunner to succeed Andy Burnham, who vacated the role to become Prime Minister in June 2026.

The by-election, the largest in British history, attracted over two million eligible voters, but only 538,659 cast ballots — down from 32.05% in the 2024 election. The supplementary vote (SV) system, which requires a candidate to secure over 50% of first-preference votes or face a second round, left the outcome uncertain until the final counts. A Labour source predicted Craig would secure at least 45% in the first round, surpassing a recent poll that placed her at 39%. However, no candidate appeared to meet the 50% threshold, setting the stage for a second count.

Reform UK, initially seen as a strong contender, faced internal challenges as activists diverted to the Clacton by-election, where Nigel Farage confronted novelty candidate Count Binface. Meanwhile, the Green Party and Liberal Democrats struggled to gain traction, with Liberal Democrat candidate Richard Kilpatrick acknowledging he likely would not advance to a second round. Kilpatrick pledged to hold the next mayor accountable, emphasizing affordability as a key voter concern.

Burnham, now Prime Minister, used the election to highlight his vision for regional devolution, announcing plans to grant mayors greater control over tax revenues and local services. The “devolution revolution” includes retaining business rates and, from next spring, a share of income tax. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner described the shift as ending the “begging-bowl culture” of local government, while Burnham framed it as empowering “forgotten places” across Britain.

The election unfolded against a backdrop of national political scrutiny. Burnham’s leadership faced criticism over his handling of asylum seeker contracts, with the Prime Minister open to early termination of multibillion-pound deals with private firms. His criticism of FIFA president Gianni Infantino — calling him the “wrong man to lead the organisation”, echoed broader European backlash against the governing body’s plans to sell World Cup stakes to private investors. UEFA’s boycott of Fifa competitions and the resignation of Infantino’s advisor, Carlos Cordeiro, underscored the controversy.

Despite the low turnout, the race underscored the growing influence of regional politics. Burnham, who voted in his local polling station late on election day, framed the outcome as a test of Labour’s ability to deliver on devolution promises. “This is a day when all of the forgotten places across Britain… can feel empowered,” he said, linking the result to his broader agenda. However, the election also exposed challenges for Labour, including voter apathy and the need to address local concerns like housing and public transport.

As the second count loomed, Craig’s victory seemed all but certain, with Labour confident in her lead. The result would cement her role in shaping Greater Manchester’s future, even as national debates over devolution, immigration, and international sports governance continued to dominate the political stage.