Oil prices soar as Trump signals prolonged U.S. conflict with Iran

Oil prices surged to multi-week highs as U.S. And Israeli strikes on Iran escalated tensions, with President Donald Trump signaling that the conflict could persist for weeks or longer, fueling fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude climbed above $79 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose past $72, marking significant gains amid heightened geopolitical risks. The surge followed reports of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, and the death of the country’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in U.S. And Israeli strikes, according to Fox Business.

The conflict’s immediate impact was felt across energy markets. Brent crude jumped 8.5% to $79.20 per barrel, while WTI surged 7.8% to $72.30, according to Fox Business. Analysts at Citi warned that prices could climb further if the conflict persists, projecting Brent to trade between $80 and $90 in the coming days. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles over 20% of global oil shipments, became a focal point as Iran claimed the passage was closed, though the U.S. Denied the assertion. Shipping activity slowed sharply, with over 200 vessels, including oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers, anchoring near the strait, according to Reuters.

Trump’s remarks on the conflict’s duration amplified market anxiety. Speaking at the White House, he stated, “Whatever the time is, it’s OK. Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that. We’ll do it.” This rhetoric, combined with the U.S. Military’s strikes on Iranian targets, sent oil prices soaring. The surge rippled through other markets, with European natural gas prices jumping 45% and U.S. Gas prices rising 5%, according to NBC News. Retail gasoline prices in the U.S. Climbed 5 cents to $2.99 per gallon, with analysts warning of further increases if the conflict prolongs.

The crisis also disrupted global stock markets. The S&P 500 ended flat, while the Nasdaq rose slightly, but European indices like Germany’s DAX and France’s benchmark fell by 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 1%, and gold futures rose over 2%, reflecting investor flight to safe-haven assets. “The scale [of Iran’s retaliation] has been a big, big surprise,” said Jorge León of Rystad Energy, highlighting the market’s underestimation of the conflict’s breadth.

Iran’s actions extended beyond the Strait of Hormuz. The country launched missile strikes on U.S. Allies in the Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, while claiming a commercial vessel was hit. Qatar, a major LNG exporter, halted maritime activities, citing military attacks on its facilities. This move threatened to disrupt global LNG supplies, with European natural gas prices surging 3.35% as markets braced for tighter supply. “A disruption in LNG would result in higher natural gas prices, especially in Europe,” said Andy Lipow, an industry analyst.

Despite the turmoil, some measures aimed to stabilize markets. OPEC+ announced plans to increase production by 200,000 barrels per day starting next month. However, analysts cautioned that sustained volatility depended on the conflict’s duration and the ability of alternative suppliers to offset disruptions. “The trajectory of oil prices will ultimately depend on four variables,” JPMorgan Chase analysts noted, including the scale and longevity of supply shocks.

The situation remains fluid, with no immediate resolution in sight. As tensions persist, the global energy market faces heightened uncertainty, with prices likely to remain volatile until a durable peace agreement is reached. For now, the interplay between military actions, geopolitical posturing, and market dynamics continues to shape the outlook for oil and gas prices worldwide.