Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic slows as US-Iran hostilities escalate

Daily tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed significantly as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran disrupt one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. The strait, which handles about a fifth of global oil supplies, has become a flashpoint in a conflict that has already throttled global energy markets and raised fears of further instability.

The slowdown follows a series of clashes this week, including alleged Iranian attacks on three tankers and U.S. Strikes on Iranian military targets. These incidents have reignited concerns about the fragility of an interim truce agreed to in late June, which aimed to ease hostilities but has now been overshadowed by renewed fighting. Oil prices, while easing slightly on Friday, remained on track for weekly gains of 4-5% amid lingering uncertainty.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in June as shipping through the strait resumed, but remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. The agency warned of tight diesel and gasoline supplies, noting that refineries have been slower to adjust to the reopening of the strait than crude prices. Prior to the conflict, the strait averaged 125-140 daily sailings, but recent traffic has dropped to around 40 ships per day, far short of pre-war levels.

Iran has accused the U.S. Of violating the terms of their agreement by failing to fully terminate military operations, including in Lebanon, where Israeli and Hezbollah clashes have further complicated regional stability. Tehran has also claimed to have closed the strait, though U.S. Central Command stated that traffic continues to flow. Iranian forces reportedly attacked U.S. Military sites in Gulf states, while the U.S. Struck approximately 90 Iranian targets, killing 14 and injuring 78, according to Iranian state media.

The crisis has deepened as Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was buried in Mashhad on Thursday after being killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28. His death has intensified domestic pressures in Iran, with his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, yet to appear publicly. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has faced growing frustration over his inability to end the war, as high gas prices and voter discontent threaten his party’s prospects ahead of midterm elections.

Diplomatic efforts have intensified, with direct U.S.-Iran talks beginning in Switzerland. A Pakistani delegation, including Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir, joined the discussions, reflecting Islamabad’s role as a mediator. The talks aim to address the nuclear issue and a Lebanon ceasefire, though progress remains uncertain. Qatar has also been involved in backchannel negotiations to de-escalate the crisis, though no breakthroughs have been announced.

The strait’s strategic importance has been underscored by the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), which raised the security threat level to “severe.” Maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that only five vessels were tracked crossing the strait on Wednesday, compared to 45 on Monday. Lloyd’s List Intelligence noted that large vessels have largely avoided the U.S.-coordinated route, with crossings via the Oman-hugging lane effectively halting. Analysts warn that prolonged instability could lead shipping companies to prioritize alternative routes, further straining global supply chains.

The human toll of the conflict continues to mount. The International Maritime Organization’s secretary-general, Arsenio Dominguez, highlighted the risks faced by seafarers, many of whom are from Asian nations like India, the Philippines, and Thailand. Meanwhile, LNG and oil tanker traffic has dropped to its lowest level since June 28, with Kpler data showing 10 ships transiting the strait on Thursday, down from 22 on Monday.

As the crisis deepens, the world watches closely. The Strait of Hormuz remains a linchpin of global energy security, and its stability will depend on the outcome of ongoing negotiations and the willingness of both sides to avoid further escalation. For now, the slowdown in tanker traffic serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of peace in a region where tensions can flare with little warning.